Research Papers

Big Tech's $160B paper-profit illusion hinges on Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs

The Arena

Big Tech's $160B paper-profit illusion hinges on Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs

The Q2 earnings beat looked enormous. Alphabet's net income tripled. Amazon's nearly did. New reporting from the Financial Times says more than $160 billion of those profits came from "other income" — mark-ups on the cloud giants' own stakes in AI labs, not from new ads, new shoppers or new AWS customers. The number is real under accounting rules and almost entirely unreal in cash. Whether it stays on the books depends on the next two IPOs. The mechanics are simple and circular.

Anthropic's automated researcher beats humans at $4 an hour

The Frontier

Anthropic's automated researcher beats humans at $4 an hour

Two research stories landed today on the same theme: machines doing work that used to be a human's job. In one corner, an Anthropic fellow shows that an LLM-driven research loop can already out-design its human handlers on alignment post-training. In the other, Meta is testing robots that pull the cables inside its data centers. Anthropic's Automated Alignment Researcher (AAR) is cheaper, faster, and — in a six-hour window — better than the human researchers it replaced.

The Take — The Anthropic–Pentagon ruling isn't a win for one lab. It's a red line for all of them

The Guardrails

The Take — The Anthropic–Pentagon ruling isn't a win for one lab. It's a red line for all of them

A federal judge just told the US government it cannot punish an AI company for refusing to let its model kill people without a human in the loop. That sentence is bigger than Anthropic, bigger than the $200 million contract at the center of the fight, and bigger than Pete Hegseth's bruised ego. It is the first time a court has converted an AI lab's stated safety principle into something the Constitution actually defends — and the next two quarters will reveal whether OpenAI and Google treat…

StreamPI teaches VLA models to think in time, not frames

The Frontier

StreamPI teaches VLA models to think in time, not frames

Two robotics papers out of China this week are quietly rewriting what "embodied AI" actually has to know. A VLA model from Da Xiao and HKU learns to read continuous time, and a single-video pipeline from Niuwa, SJTU, and Shandong lets a robot push through a door it has only ever seen on tape. Both push past the single-frame ceiling — and both suggest the next wave of robot intelligence is less about bigger models and more about the dimensions they were ignoring. StreamPI gives VLA models a…

Ex-OpenAI VP: human AI researchers have 'two years' left in the driver's seat

The Frontier

Ex-OpenAI VP: human AI researchers have 'two years' left in the driver's seat

The man who built OpenAI's o1 and o3 reasoning models now runs a lab whose stated goal is to make researchers like him obsolete — and he has put a number on how fast it will happen. Jerry Tworek, the former OpenAI research vice president who led the o-series reasoning models, said in a recent interview that human researchers have roughly two years left to play a meaningful role in AI research before the entire loop — from idea generation to validation — is automated.

Terminal-Bench-Science: the best AI agents solve only 30% of real research tasks

The Frontier

Terminal-Bench-Science: the best AI agents solve only 30% of real research tasks

A new benchmark built from researchers' own lab work is drawing the first honest line between AI agents that can talk about science and agents that can actually do it. The answer is humbling: the best system in the world clears fewer than a third of the tasks. Terminal-Bench-Science 0.1 launches today with 70 tasks drawn from real scientific workflows across the life, physical, Earth, mathematical, and engineering sciences.

100+ firms warn of a 'limited window' to brace for AI cyberattacks

The Guardrails

100+ firms warn of a 'limited window' to brace for AI cyberattacks

The world's biggest AI labs and banks signed an open letter warning that the window to shore up defenses before AI outruns them is closing — a rare moment of would-be rivals speaking as one. More than 100 companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, AWS, and financial heavyweights Capital One, Mastercard, and Visa, signed an open letter warning that there is "a limited window to improve cyber defenses" before AI-enabled attacks outpace existing security.

Anthropic opens real Claude usage data to outside researchers

The Guardrails

Anthropic opens real Claude usage data to outside researchers

The most guarded data in AI — what people actually ask a model — just became a public research resource, and the first findings are revealing. Anthropic ran a pilot that handed three outside research teams access to real, anonymized Claude usage, with almost no say over what they concluded, and one team promptly found that users are handing Claude consequential decisions. Anthropic let researchers from Stanford, Oxford, and the safety group METR run their own studies on a quarter-million real…